How Confidence Affects the Way You Play Blackjack

Blackjack is a card game in which players compete to form hands that total as close to 21 as possible without going over. It is a popular casino table game that involves some skill, but it is not as complicated as one might think. Many people think that the game of blackjack is all about luck, but there are some important tips and strategies that can make the difference between winning and losing.

The dealer deals two cards to each player and the player can decide to “hit” (receive more cards) or “stand” (keep their current hand) based on predetermined rules. The player can also choose to “split” their hand into two separate hands that must be played individually. Once all the players have decided to hit or stand, the dealer will reveal his or her face-down card and determine the winner.

If a player has a blackjack (an ace and a ten-card), the dealer must pay the player one and a half times their bet. The dealer can also offer insurance, which is a side bet that wins if the dealer has a blackjack and loses if the dealer does not. Generally, the dealer will not take insurance wagers, but this is not always the case.

In our studies, we found that confidence in one’s knowledge of blackjack strategy correlated with a number of psychological and behavioral consequences, including outcome expectations, anxiety levels, and risk taking. In Study 2, we manipulated participants’ confidence and found that greater unjustified confidence led to larger bets, increased the frequency of risk-taking, and decreased the use of hints designed to improve blackjack play. These findings are consistent with the idea that confidence increases independent of actual knowledge and should be considered in settings in which education is used to change behavior, such as home radon tests or financial capability programs.

During the experiment, we provided our participants with a sheet of “hints for blackjack play.” While these hints are not foolproof, they can provide a good starting point for learning how to play blackjack. Our goal was to encourage participants to play realistically, as if they were playing with their own money. We believe this approach is more effective than providing specific hints that may be overly biased or misleading. The data from these studies will be made available to other researchers through an institutional review board at Wake Forest University.